Revisiting and Revising Baseball Predictions

It's the All Star Break, so it's a good time to go back and visit my preseason predictions.

AL East: Yankees. Because that's the way the world works. Even if they don't look as good on paper, they'll do something mid-season if it's not gelling.

They're currently in second, three games out. I'm sticking with this prediction.

AL Central: White Sox. They won it all last year, they added depth to their rotation, and they added Jim Thome. No one will stop them in the central.

Well, they've been awfully good, but the "no one will stop them in the central" prediction is a bit more iffy. The Tigers, who no one would have predicted would be there, are in first place, and the Twins look awfully good too. Still, I'm sticking with this prediction.

AL West: Angels. I think this is a weak division, and the Angels will squeak through.

The Angels are two games out, with a tie for first atop the division between the A's and Rangers. Ah, what the heck. I'll stick with this prediction as well.

AL Wild Card: Blue Jays. It's not their offseason spending that will get them the wild card. It's the slipping Red Sox, and the continued greatness of Roy Halladay.

This prediction doesn't look so great to me anymore. And the Red Sox don't seem to be slipping. But it's the Tigers that have the great record at the moment, and while I think the White Sox will end up on top, I'm going with the Tigers for the Wild Card.

AL Champs: White Sox.

Sticking with it.

AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay.

They could go with the Red Sox closer, Papelbon, but I'm sticking with Halladay.

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez.

Still a very good player, as some Yankees fans don't seem to understand, but not a likely MVP at this point. There are several players who could snag it, but I'm now predicting David Ortiz will rise above the pack.

NL East: Braves. See my Yankee comments. Mets continue their streak of spending alot of money and it not panning out.

Ok. I was nowhere close on this one. The Mets are panning out in a major way and Braves are sucking it up like it's 1989. Revised prediction: The Mets will win the NL East. Duh.

NL Central: Cardinals. I'll be accused of bias here, but who else is in the Central? Really? The Cubs are starting Prior and Wood on the DL, the Brewers are improving but not enough to knock off the Cards, the same for the Pirates, the Astros are aging and the Reds are the Reds.

The Cards are indeed in first, but the Reds are more than just the Reds. The Cards pitching staff is shaky, and if for no other reason than to whip my team into shape, I'm revising my prediction. The Reds will win the NL Central.

NL West: Dodgers. Just a hunch.

They're two games behind the Padres, and I'm sticking with my hunch.

NL Wild Card: Brewers. Why not? They've got the most underrated pitching staff in baseball.

The Brew Crew are holding their own, and I feel fairly strongly that some team from the Central will win the Wild Card. But did your really think I was leaving my team out of the playoffs? Revised prediction: The Cards will win the NL Wild Card.

NL Champs: Cardinals. Now prove me right, team.

The Cards will shape up for the playoffs and I'll keep my prediction.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy.

Ding ding ding ding ding! We have a winner for my worst prediction of the preseason! Peavy is 4-8 with a 4.46 ERA. Even though he's had some bad luck and should be more like 6-6, not exactly a Cy Young type season. Let me try this one again. Brandon Webb will win the NL Cy Young award.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols.

Even with his 17 days on the DL, he has the best stats in the National League. I'm sticking with this one.

Your 2006 World Champion St. Louis Cardinals. Did you really expect me to say anything else?

Seriously, did you expect me to change my mind on this one?