Curses

As a Cardinals fan, this is going to be the most meaningless postseason to me since 2003. But it won't be entirely for nothing... There will be several teams that I have strong feelings about in the postseason.

I hate the Yankees. I hate the Red Sox. I hate the Phillies slightly more than I hate the Mets, but I will hate whichever team gets into the playoffs (and it's possible both will).

I have no strong feelings about the Indians or Angels, or anyone in the National League West, so if any of those teams win, I'm fine with it.

And then there's.... the Cubs.

True, the Brewers still have a shot, but it's looking like the Cubs will make the playoffs for the first time since 2003, which is the last time the Cardinals missed the playoffs.

You want to know a secret? And it pains me as a Cardinals fan to admit this, but....

I don't believe in curses.

I'm not superstitious. Although, I liked Michael Scott's quote from The Office last night, "I'm not SUPERstitious, but I am a LITTLE stitious"... that doesn't really apply to me either.

I pretty much have the skeptic's take on curses. From the Skeptic's dictionary...

Curses seem to have been a regular part of ancient cultures and may have been a way to frighten enemies and explain the apparent injustices of the world. There is no evidence that anyone has successfully invoked occult powers to do harm to others, but there is evidence that those who believe they have been cursed can be made miserable by exploiting that belief. Fear and the human tendency to confirmation bias and selective thinking can sometimes lead the believer to fulfill the curse. (Emphasis mine)

That's right. Cubs fans are not cursed. But they feel like they're cursed, which is almost the same thing.

An unfortunate side effect of the postseason lately, with Steve Bartman in 2003, and the Red Sox comeback in 2004, is relentless talk about curses.

Heck, I admit, for a while it seemed like the Cardinals could have been cursed. Despite making the playoffs many times between 1982 and 2005, the Cardinals just couldn't seem to seal the deal. Maybe this guy put a curse on the team in 1985. Who knows.

But then the Cardinals won in 2006. With a pretty mediocre team, at that. Supposed "curse" over.

I've already seen lots of curse talk this year.

Someone drove down from Wisconsin to Wrigley Field, with a goat, to renew the Billy Goat Curse.

Mr. Met has supposedly cursed the Mets.

And my favorite, The "Pee Your Pants for the Brewers" website has supposedly cursed the Brewers.

Like I said, I think this is all bullshit. BUT.......

The Cubs are still very unlikely to win the World Series.

Why? They're just not a great team. And on top of that, the playoffs are largely a crapshoot.

So lets say all teams are even entering the playoffs. That means any given team has a 12.5% chance at winning the World Series. Some teams are better than others, but that doesn't always mean much in the playoffs. I'll knock the Cubs' World Series chances down just a tad since they're not one of the better teams in the playoffs, to 10%.

So there you have it. We know, going into the playoffs, that the Cubs have about a 10% chance of winning it all. Can it happen? Sure. The Cardinals had about a similar, if not worse, chance of winning it all last year. But in the likely scenario that the Cubs don't win it all, let's not blame it on a silly curse.